SESSION 2:  Validating Models of Social Dynamics

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 5

1:15pm-3:45pm

Two plenary speakers and the session presider will discuss a variety of methods for validating theoretical models, including their goals, criteria for evaluating fit, and their interpretation and use of error.

Plenary Speakers

Presider: Robert Axtell (Brooking Institue/George Mason)

Bernardo Huberman (HP/Stanford)

Thinking Globally and Acting Locally

 

Peter Turchin (U. of Connecticut)

Testing Dynamic Models with Time-Series Data

The speakers will be followed by breakout sessions. In these sessions, we will discuss a variety of methods used to validate theoretical models. Four breakout groups will focus on the following approaches:

 

      _____  A. Showing that a model reproduces (“grows”) qualitative empirical patterns

      _____  B. Testing models by assessing fit to observed data; studying anomalies/outliers

      _____  C. Forecasting; predicting events and trends.

      _____  D. Aligning/“docking” a model with other models (non-empirical validation)

 

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